That’s right, I’m going to stick my neck out as a prognosticator, and despite President Biden’s firm belief he will, I will predict Putin will not invade Ukraine.
Will Putin add military to Ukraine enclaves he already controls? Yes. Will there be shelling? Yes. Will Putin’s apply pressure and scare tactics that will come right to the brink? Yes. But will he go through with a full-scale invasion? I say, NO!
Maybe I’m being hoodwinked by a fervent desire to see a peaceful outcome, one without bloodshed on both sides. This can sometimes cloud or buoy one’s thinking and become more wishful than rational.
But here are my reasons why there won’t be an out-and-out invasion. (hopefully)
- First, Putin needs to show the Russians inside the Ukraine enclave that a bold bully stanchly has their back. So, erase any thoughts of attacking these Russian loyalists within the Ukraine or face devastating consequences from their powerful ally and neighbor.
- Putin knows the dire consequences to Russia’s economy if he goes through with an invasion, not to mention the reaction of Momma Russians to seeing their sons returning from Ukraine in body bags.
- Next, Biden’s bent for miscalculating, of which the most glaring and horribly graphic example was how the U.S. bailed out of Afghanistan. What a mess! Then Mr. Biden believed that widespread availability of coronavirus vaccinations would speed the return to prepandemic life. No! Instead, the Delta variant devoured that return to normalcy. Americans stayed at home, where they continued to buy goods online, straining global supply chains that sent prices of almost everything through the roof. Soaring inflation!
- Ukraine President Zelenskyy keeps pressing for a conciliatory meeting with Putin, which just might happen that will show him appealing to emperor Putin for mercy.
These are just some of the reasons for my prediction.
And may peace result, which will be a lot kinder to the stocks we own, which already have plummeted from great heights from where we’d like them to return ASAP!
Besides a veteran blogger, Tom Madden is a former journalist and an author of countless published articles and five books, including his latest, WORDSHINE MAN, available April on Amazon. He is the founder and CEO of TransMedia Group, an award-winning public relations firm serving clients worldwide since 1981 and has conducted remarkably successful media campaigns and crisis management for America’s largest companies and organizations.